Glorious Goodwood – Day Three Advice

After Dawn Approach went down valiantly in defeat on Wednesday afternoon, it meant we were back to square one in trying to break this Goodwood curse.

Richard Hannon is currently flying, and anything he runs must be taken very seriously. Fortunately he does not have a runner in the Goodwood Cup, and this allows us to make a very strong selection, from overseas.

A German raider stole the show on Saturday, as Novellist romped home in the King George, and it would be no surprise to see the German’s steal the show again tomorrow with Altano.

Andreas Wohler’s 7-y-o has only ever raced over two miles on occasion, when winning a Group Three at Hoppergarten. Since then he has competed in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, finishing a very tenderly ridden and fast finishing fifth.

He looked as though he should have troubled the leaders a lot more than he did, and with the benefit of a run on these shores, and his ideal trip, he should go very close.

He is currently a top-priced 7/1, which looks exceptional each-way value. I would advise getting on as soon as possible, as I imagine he will go off around the 9/2-5/1 mark come race time tomorrow.

His main competition looks likely to come from John Gosden’s Caucus. The 6-y-o looked better than ever when getting within one and a half lengths of future Gold Cup winner Estimate, in the Sagaro Stakes. He then went on to win a listed race at Sandown a shade cosily, and comes into the race in great form.

There are no stamina doubts about William Buick’s mount, and he should be challenging all the way down the Sussex straight.

Earlier on in the card, the Richmond Stakes plays host to a bunch of very classy 2-y-o’s.

Figure of Speech looks a worthy favourite, following his brilliant second in the July Stakes, on only his second start.

Charlie Appleby has already tasted Group race success this week, and the boys in blue are looking like a force to be reckoned with once more.

However he is little value at the current 6/4, so we should look elsewhere, and no further than Saayerr.

ryan moore

William Haggas has been in fine form of late, and Ryan Moore takes over from Liam Jones in the saddle.

He was far from disgraced at Royal Ascot, and the break since will have done him the world of good. He looks much more suited to a smaller, tactical ordeal, as opposed to a big field like last time. Moore is in devilish form, and with Parbold uncertain to run (having run on Wednesday), Big Thunder looking a bit flat last time out, and Jallota seemingly on a decline, I suggest getting stuck into the 7/1 currently on offer for Saayerr.

Advice:

1 point win: 3:05 Goodwood: Altano @ 7/1

0.5 reverse forecast: Altano/Caucus

1 point win: 2:30 Goodwood: Saayerr @ 7/1

0.5 e.w double: Altano & Saayerr @ 63/1

Glorious Goodwood – Day Two Advice

The match-up that this very week has been based around, arrives on Wednesday, and it looks set to be an absolute belter.

The superstar 2-y-o and subsequent 2000 Guineas and St. James’ Palace winner Dawn Approach lines up against the classy Toronado, and consistently strong Declaration of War.

Dawn Approach only has one blip on his CV, when nearly ripping Kevin Manning’s arms out of their socket in the opening three furlongs of the Derby, before going on to fade into the background of the Epsom cambers, losing his unbeaten record.

dawny

There were talks he would never be the same horse again, and he re-appeared against Toronado (who had since had an operation, following his Guineas fourth) and Magician (Irish 2000 Guineas winner), at Royal Ascot in June, answering his critics in a game style.

He failed to settle once more during the early part of the race, showing up very keen in-touch, but once he switched off, he travelled up like a dream and even after being given a bump when making headway, he still managed to show his turn of foot and true spirit, fending off Toronado by a short-head.

Toronado was given the ultimate hard luck story in the media, with questions raised as to whether he would have got the better of Jim Bolger’s colt, without the bumping at half-way. In my opinion, he wouldn’t.

He eyeballed Dawn Approach with half a furlong to go, and if he was the better horse, he would have gone past him and won.

No doubting Richard Hannon’s horse is incredible, just I think Dawn Approach is a slightly better animal.

Declaration of War is going to give a massive show, having ran two absolute crackers when landing the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot before finishing runner-up behind the horse of the year so far, Al Kazeem.

The stable think really highly of him, and the heaviness in which he was backed before his Lockinge flop gave us a taster of just how highly they rate him.

However, he does have to give weight away to the classy 3-y-o’s, and that should just swing it in their favour.

Overall, I have to feel, if Dawn Approach settles, he will win. It is a slight risk at the odds, but he is yet to give us that breathtaking performance he has always promised, and tomorrow looks set to be the day. Can he follow in the hoof-prints of Rip Van Winkle, Canford Cliffs and the mighty Frankel? I suggest taking the 6/5 that he can..

Advice:

4 points win: Dawn Approach @ 6/5 

 

 

Glorious Goodwood – Day One Advice

The ‘most beautiful racecourse in the world’ plays host to one of the summer’s biggest racing festivals, and it looks set to begin with a bang.

There are plenty of high class horses on show, and the festival begins with a tricky looking handicap. There are too many potential good things to delve into that too deeply, so we begin our week with a strong looking selection in the second race.

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes always seem to come alive at this time of year, and they are represented by the highly rated Anticipated in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes.

The son of Whipper lost his unbeaten tag in the Windsor Castle when last seen in Britain, finishing a respectable third behind Extortionist, when sent off 4/1 favourite.

He then went to France, finishing the best of the British raiders, in fifth place behind Vorda in the Prix Robert Papin.

This is rock solid form, and the only reason he isn’t favourite is due to Supplicant finishing a short-head in front him in the Windsor Castle. This is set to be more of a tactical affair, and with Hughes’ likely to stalk Ryan Moore on board Supplicant, his finishing kick will be seen to better effect.

The 4/1 looks more than fair, and he looks an each-way certainty.

Now, in our third race on the card, likely favourite Aljamaheer looks a very good horse who could potentially go on to bigger and better things. However there have been plenty of warnings that the colt may not even turn up, unless conditions go his way.

He needs a bit more juice in the ground, and if he doesn’t get enough (which looks likely), there are plenty of better alternatives in the race.

None more so than Producer, who beat the favourite off level weights at Leicester back in April. He receives four pounds on Tuesday, and with  Hannon always seeming to hit top form at this time of the year, another bold run is expected. He is currently 5/1, and that price will be considerably shorter come race time tomorrow.

He has course and distance form in the book, and gets into the race unpenalised following his Group Three win in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time out. Fencing and Garswood are both respected and should give account of themselves, but Richard Hughes’ mount is taken to land the prize.

BetVictor are running a magnificent offer, that will act as a saver to our selections for the entirety of Glorious Goodwood. They are offering your money back as a free bet, if your horse finishes second to the SP favourite in any race during the festival. This means if our selections are pipped by the favourites, the pain will be eased every so slightly. (http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/2-good)

They have also managed to produce a magnificent guide to Goodwood, which will be on show below my selections. Take a look and it may help sway your selections on top of my advice.

Advice:

2 points win: 2:30 Goodwood: Anticipated @ 4/1 

1 point win: 3:05 Goodwood: Producer @ 5/1

0.5 points e.w double: Anticipated & Producer @ 29/1

Goodwood

 

Premier League 2013/14 – Preview with Tips

The 2013/14 Premier League season is approaching rapidly, and we can finally indulge in our footballing feasts once more.

There will plenty of thrills and spills along the way, tears will be shed, but where else can you experience the ups-and-downs that 90 minutes of football offers?

There is a new look and feel to this season, with Sir Alex Ferguson finally giving up his mantle as the greatest Premier League manager of all-time, handing it down to the extremely consistent David Moyes.

There has always been plenty of questions of how Moyes, would do with money, and this is where we find out.

Last year’s Champions looked imperious, romping the league by a cosy 11 points with very few worrying moments along the way.

Robin van Persie looked sensational, settling in to his new surroundings and bagging 26 league goals, finishing top scorer in his first season at the Red Devils.

Yet, pre-season has not gone very well for Moyes so far. It is only pre-season, and too much shouldn’t be read into the performances, however it’s always nice to begin your reign as boss with a steady few wins.

The players have looked lacklustre, and this could be a big factor in whether or not Moyes will be able to draw in the high-calibre players he needs to, to ensure they stay ahead of the competition, with both Chelsea and Manchester City improving their squads over the summer.

United haven’t managed to bring in any high class players to help boost their side, after failed bids for Cesc Fabregas and Thiago, and non-existent efforts to sign Fellaini and Baines from former club Everton.

There used to be a massive pull to United, to play under one of the greatest manager’s to have been involved with football, Sir Alex, but now there are many who are not feeling the same about playing under someone who failed to win a trophy on his 11 years on Merseyside.

Players are deciding to head elsewhere, and this could play a factor in Manchester United falling behind both Manchester City and Chelsea.

City and Chelsea have both been involved in manager changes as-well, with Mancini leaving Manchester after failing to win a trophy in his final season (the current state of modern football, where money is involved), being replaced by former Malaga manager, Manuel Pelligrini.

Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Alvaro Negredo and Stefan Jovetic have all been bought in an attempt to bolster the squad at Eastlands, and look to have a great chance of doing so.

They could add the extra spark that was missing at certain parts last season, and on paper, it would seem that City have the stronger side in Manchester. This leads us to believe the Evens currently on offer for City to finish the season as the highest North-West club, looks a solid bet.

However, in terms of winning the league, I do feel they will fall slightly short, due to the magic that one man can work in London.

Step up, the Special One..

mouinho

Jose Mourinho makes his return to the place he once made his own, Stamford Bridge, and has inherited a brilliant squad which he looks set to round off in his own special way.

Romelu Lukaku returning is almost like a new signing in itself, with the 20-year-old returning from a successful loan spell at the Hawthorns, proclaiming his time there ‘made him a man’.

He adds depth to an already strong Chelsea attack, with Torres, Matam Hazard, Ba and the newly signed, and highly-rated Andre Shurrle.

The only thing that was lacking last season for the Blues was a calm head in front of goal, and with Mourinho extremely interested in Wayne Rooney, he could offer the missing link that Chelsea needed to become the complete unit.

They have a brilliant goalkeeper in the shape of Petr Cech, a solid defence, and sensational attack. Another holding midfielder would be the only position that really needs taking care of, however in the shape of David Luiz, they have a more than able deputy, who could slot in their when needed.

His fast feet, surprising pace, and brute strength make him an ideal candidate for the holding role, and playing him centre-half has often caused problems when the Brazilian neglects to curb his attacking instinct.

He is a great passer of the ball and has tremendous vision, so if he is played in what looks to be his best position, he could set the world alight.

This leads me to believe that Chelsea should just about prevail in the race for the title, after a strong battle with Manchester City, while Manchester United take a season to adjust under David Moyes, back in third.

Advice: Chelsea/Manchester City/Manchester United @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Robin van Persie is a worthy favourite for the top goalscorer market, but 4/1 looks far too short to get involved in, so we have to look elsewhere for each-way value.

With Luis Suarez banned for the opening six games, and maybe even venturing to Madrid before then, Daniel Sturridge is set for a more central role, the kind of which he’s always dreamed of.

With Suarez banned towards the end of last season, Sturridge spearheaded the Reds attack, with great effect.

Liverpool opened up defences with great team moves as opposed to just getting the ball to Suarez and hoping the Uruguayan would create some magic.

sturridge swans

Sturridge scored ten goals in fourteen games, and seemed to strike up a great understanding with the midfield trio of Gerrard, Henderson and in particular Phillipe Coutinho.

He is 20/1 for the top goalscorer prize, and this looks tremendous each-way value, with the Reds seemingly set for a big season.

At a bigger price, Olivier Giroud appeals at a surprisingly large 50/1.

The Frenchman began to hit form towards the back-end of last season, managing to bag 17 goals in his maiden Premier League campaign.

At the moment he looks set to be the central figure of the Arsenal attack, with the Gunners failing to bring any other attackers so far this summer.

They are still attempting to bring Luis Suarez to the Emirates, a move welcomed by Giroud, but even if they are successful with the move the Uruguayan could easily play behind the Frenchman, or on either side of an attacking trio.

Santi Cazorla and Mikel Arteta are two of the best at threading through balls, and with Jack Wilshere returning to fitness, Giroud is sure to receive to impeccable service.

All in all, the 50/1 looks far too big on a player who will know a lot more about the Premier League, having been here a year. 11 goals in his first season is a solid base, and he now has the ability to kick on, and must be key if Arsenal are to make a bold challenge for fourth spot.

Advice:

1pt e.w: Daniel Sturridge @ 20/1 (Various)

0.5pt e.w: Olivier Giroud @ 50/1 (Various)

The bridge between Championship football and Premiership football is something many find hard to adapt to, and Crystal Palace and Hull look set to struggle again this term.

Palace only just managed to make it to the promised land, via a very dramatic play-off final, and failing to replace their key man Wilfried Zaha looks set to come back to haunt them.

Hull as though they have failed to make enough moves in the transfer window so far to ensure survival next year, whereas Cardiff’s squad looked as though it could have stake a claim for a solid placing in the Premier League last year, and with high profile names such as Dirk Kuyt being linked, they look as though they should manage to escape relegation.

This means there is one team left to fill the bottom three, and at the time of writing the most likely candidates look to be Stoke City.

After looking as they were going to be Premier League stalwarts under Tony Pulis, the Potters finishing between 11th and 14th on four successive occasions under the Welshman.

mark hughes

However heading in to their fifth successive campaign, now under the tutoring of Mark Hughes, Stoke look as though they may well struggle over the coming season.

A massive dip in form seen the Potters pick up only five points in thirteen games during 2013, which managed to draw them into what could easily have escalated into a relegation battle. The fans were nervous before back-to-back victories over Norwich and QPR ensured Premier League survival for another year.

However they needed to improve during the transfer window just to make up for the rather dubious managerial expertise of Mark Hughes whose QPR side (30) were the only team to score less than Stoke (34) in the Premier League last season.

Goals win games, and if Hughes attempts to change Pulis’ tactical style of play too much, the Potters may well be in trouble. Stoke are not an overly footballing side, but do the basics very well. However Mark Hughes is renowned for making sides his own (usually negatively) and this could well spell trouble for Stoke City and it’s fans, with Hughes already offering a false dawn of ‘a new brand of attacking football’.

Advice: Crystal Palace/Hull/Stoke @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

ALL ADVICE:

2 points: Tri-cast: Chelsea/Manchester City/Manchester United @ 10/1 (Bet365)

1 point: Relegation treble: Crystal Palace/Hull/Stoke @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

1 point e.w: Top scorer: Daniel Sturridge @ 20/1 (Various)

0.5 points e.w: Top scorer: Olivier Giroud @ 50/1 (Various)

The Open Championship – Betting Preview With Tips

The biggest four days in the British golfing calendar has finally arrived, and it is back at the course the legendary Jack Nicklaus described as ‘the best course in Britain’.

The Open hasn’t been staged at Muirfield since Ernie Els’ dramatic win in 2002, when he came out best of all in a four-man play-off.

However the course has changed considerably since then, with extra length, new bunkers, and four more championship tees in attendance.

There are even narrower entrances to the sloping greens, due to the extremely deep green-side bunkers. This means we are looking for players with great approach play, and are consistent in finding the greens.

This leads us to our main fancy of the competition, Graeme McDowell. He has just notched up his third victory of 2013, when landing the Open de France in fine fashion.

His incredible driving accuracy and scrambling are two key components that the winner must have in their locker, and this means that the 28/1 on offer for GMac looks very tempting. Coupled with the fact he has grew up playing links golf, unlike many of the competitors, this could give him the vital edge and he looks a great each-way punt.

GMAC1

His other two wins, in the RBC and Volvo Matchplay were equally as impressive, and he seems to be able to handle the burden of being a major winner a lot better, after a dip in form following his 2010 US Open victory.

He tied fifth in last year’s Open Championship, which is his best ever finish and provides a solid platform for the Irishman to kick on and improve on last year’s placing.

Alongside GMac, we can delve into two more fancied entrants, who are also in great form.

Jason Day was still in school when the Open was last at Muirfield back in 2002, but the Aussie has gone from strength-to-strength since turning pro, and has been consistent at the top level over the last couple of years.

Finishing joint-runner up in the US Open this year has highlighted the 25 year-old’s ability to continue to mix it at the top.

He has only played in the Open Championship twice in his blossoming career, disappointing in 2010 before going on to improve and finish a respectable 13th in 2011. He missed last year’s competition due to injury and the birth of his child, which will further spur Day on to give a solid account of himself.

His temperament is to be admired, and after a recent spout of top-ten finishes, it would be no surprise to see Day’s odds tumble in the days leading up to the big event, with a number of firms already only offering 25/1 on the Australian.

He is extremely consistent, and no-one can deny his major pedigree. He looks sure to give punters a solid run for their money at 33/1.

The final selection for the week is an intriguing outsider in the shape of Thorbjorn Olesen.

The 23-year-old has been in patchy form of late, but on his day, he’s shown incredible ability.

He’s more than capable of putting together a big performance, and the 65 he shot in the second round at Royal St George’s last year shows how he can cope with a difficult links course.

He is yet to piece together four rounds of consistent golf, but on the day he does, he is sure to land a big prize.

In the final two rounds at his only appearance at Augusta to date, he managed successive 68’s, so it’s clear to see he has no problem finishing off his rounds.

However his opening 18 often lets the Dane down, so if he is within two or three shots at the close of play on day one, he is in with a solid chance.

Stan James are offering a massive 125/1 on Olesen, who is as short as 50/1 elsewhere.

Advice:

2 points e.w – Graeme McDowell @ 28/1 (Sportingbet)

1 point e.w – Jason Day @ 40/1 (Coral/Youwin)

0.5 points e.w – Thorbjorn Olesen @ 125/1 (Stan James)