Liverpool v Manchester United & Arsenal v Spurs – Preview with Selections

A magnificent day of football looks in prospect on Sunday, with two big ties to create the first real Super Sunday of the season.

Liverpool entertain Manchester United at Anfield in the 1:30 kick-off, and for the first time in a while. Liverpool enter the game as favourites, and rightly so.

They have started the season in impressive fashion, showing resilience in two 1-0 victories over potential tricky opposition.

Sunday offers the first real test for Rogers’ men, and they will be confident they can get one over on their Manchester rivals, who landed the double against them last year.

However, stats are against Liverpool, with the last time the Reds started a season with three consecutive wins, being back in 1994 under Roy Evans. This, mixed with the fact that the last time Liverpool won five games on the bounce (they have won four so far), was back in May 2009.

This will give David Moyes, who interestingly enough has never won at Anfield as a manager, a bit of extra hope.

His side have started well, inflicting a severe 4-1 defeat at Swansea on the opening day of the season, before being held to a goaless draw by tital rivals Chelsea last Monday.

Moyes opted for a rather defensive side, seemingly taking his tactics from Everton with him. He can’t rely on such tactics tomorrow, with a patient Liverpool side happy to keep possession under Rogers,  and with the likes of Coutinho and Sturridge, are likely to break a deep sitting side down.

He will be forced to play his hand, and attack a rather makeshift Liverpool defence, with Skrtel likely to deputise in the place of the injured Toure, who will be a real loss for Liverpool.

He has struggled with the imperious RVP over the past few seasons with Van Persie scoring four in his last three appearances against Liverpool, and the Dutchman looks fair value at 5/1 to be the first-scorer at Anfield.

With rash challenges galore in these games, it often pays to side with penalty takers and with RVP being covered each-way at 5/1, we turn our attention to the Reds’ skipper, Steven Gerrard.

Gerrard has been a tad out of form this season, failing to fire on all cylinders as expected. Age could well be playing a part, with him residing in a more defensive role, as Coutinho and Henderson have come to the fore in the more attacking midfield roles, however he never fails to turn up in the big games.

gerrard lird

His record against United is outstanding, and he seems to save his deadliest set-piece expertise for against his rivals. He looks a massive 14/1 to be first-scorer, and with Liverpool ‘due a pen’, it’s worth taking on the 11/2 for him to score any-time as-well.

However, De Gea’s brilliant shot-stopping ability, mean he will be tough to beat, even from the spot, and it could be up to the rebound for Gerrard to blast home. It’s 16/1 for Liverpool to miss a penalty (17/1 for United), and as much as it pains me, it may pay to have a small saver on it, to cover the bets slightly.

I would be looking at backing Rooney any-time at 11/4, but the rumours circulating that he has sustained a head injury, and may well miss the match, mean we won’t look at this, and instead turn our attentions to following the stats into another value bet.

Nemanja Vidic has often seen red against Liverpool over the years, being sent off in three consecutive games between the two sides, and he is a massive 23/10 just to be carded tomorrow. As short as 6/5 in places, the Serbian could prove one step behind the pacey Sturridge, and Sterling if he is given the nod.

He enjoys letting the striker know they are in a game, and will be out to leave his mark on the game early. 23/10 looks a solid bet.

Elsewhere, the North London derby kicks-off late afternoon, and Spurs will look to pile even more pressure on Arsene Wenger.

Roberto Soldado has started brightly, netting two in two (albeit penalites), and looks a solid bet at 7/1 to be the first scorer on Sunday.

AVB has been absolutely magnificent during the transfer window, and he’s assembled a side that look firm favourites to bag the all important fourth place and Champions League spot.

With Bale’s future in major doubt, he will be looking to his new side to step up to the mark in his absence on keep on improving. Paulinho has been a tremendous acquisition and the 14/1 about him bagging the first goal could be worth a small punt, as-well as the 11/2 about him scoring anytime.

Neither team will want to risk losing so early in the season, and it could be a day for first’s, with Tottenham aiming to score their first goal from open play, and also may come a cropper to conceding their first goal of the season, potentially surrendering their 100% record in the process.

Jan Vertonghen has been a revelation since moving to Spurs, improving with each passing game, however up against Theo Walcott tomorrow, he will have to be constantly on his toes.

Covering when his left-back attacks, he will often be left against Walcott’s blistering pace and he may well be in a position where at times he has to take one for the team and purposely bring down his opponent.

A booking is likely at some stage for the Belgian, and the 11/4 on offer should be snapped up with open arms.

Advice:

1 point: RVP to score first @ 5/1 (William Hill)

1 point: Gerrard to score first & any-time @ 14/1 & 11/2 (William Hill)

1 point: Paulinho to score first & any-time @ 14/1 & 11/2 (Coral)

0.5 point: Liverpool to miss a penalty @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)

1 point double: Vidic & Vertonghen to be booked @ 11.37/1 (888Sports & UniBet)

 

 

 

 

Manchester United v Chelsea – Match Preview with Selections

The first real big clash of the season is that of champions Manchester United versus a rejuvenated Chelsea side.

All eyes will be on a clash between ‘The Special One’, Jose Mourinho, and ‘The Dubious One’, David Moyes.

mourinho

Mourinho’s Chelsea side have started with two wins out of two, with rather workmanlike efforts over both Hull and Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge. With both Hull and Villa sitting very deep to try and nullify the creativity of the Chelsea front-line, it became a struggle to break down the back-four, yet they did and managed to maintain a 100% record.

On Monday evening, Manchester United will no doubt name a strong attacking force and go out to dominate proceedings. Their 4-1 win over Swansea proved their attacking prowess is still going strong under Moyes, yet for the opening part of the game they looked vulnerable against a solid passing game.

With Rooney’s future at the club still up in the air, it is unknown whether he will start the game, and he may well opt for Van Persie with Welbeck or Giggs sitting behind him. Welbeck’s pressing game, and Giggs’ experience in the big games would be extremely valuable, but in terms of actually playing football it would make a lot more sense to incorporate both Rooney and play-maker Shinji Kagawa into the side.

This will give them plenty of opportunities to cut down the defensive pairing of Terry/Cahill, but with Welbeck/Giggs, chances will be harder to find. Fortunately RVP can make chances out of nothing, and although he may not get the greatest service, his natural goal-scoring ability will come to the rescue for Moyes and his side plenty this season, and the 11/8 about him scoring anytime looks a brilliant bet.

However, United’s defensive frailties are there to be exploited, and if Moyes attempts to encourage his side to attack (something he’s never really done before), there is plenty of pace and trickery to test the aging pair of Vidic and Ferdinand.

After a poor pre-season defensively, leaking goals, they didn’t look completely confident against the Swans, and Mourinho’s Chelsea will be a completely different proposition to the side they faced last week.

Romelu Lukaku made an massive impact last year for West Brom, when on-loan from the Blues, and he could be in line to start his first game of the season after Ba and Torres have both failed to fire when given their chances so far.

He bagged a hat-trick against United in the last game of the season, rounding off a fantastic season in the Premier League. The 20-year-old, (yes, he is only 20 years old..) can lead the Chelsea front-line, and be the pinnacle of their counter-attacking strategy on Monday evening. He looks set to bully Ferdinand and Vidic, and can guarentee that the defensive nature of the two sides (Chelsea for certain, United slightly likely under Moyes) should be punished, with over 2.5 goals being a solid bet at 5/6.

It will be a great spectacle for the neutrals with so much pressure on the new managers (Moyes more than Mourinho), and the pressure on Moyes not to lose may end up costing his side dearly.

Chelsea have the right attitude under Jose, and with Ramires set to have a field day against the rather slow United back-four, he could be the difference between the two sides, and the Blues should have the class to see off United. Available at 11/5, they looks a great bet, but with the unpredictability of the Premier League, it could pay to side with Chelsea draw-no-bet at 5/4, which still looks a solid play.

So that’s three short-priced bets for the game, but there are plenty of punters who prefer to get involved with small stakes at bigger prices, and that’s extremely fair. If that is the case, the best bet I could advise is Chelsea to win 3-1.

With United entering a period of change under Moyes, this is the best time to be heading to Old Trafford, and with Chelsea feeling rejuvinated under Jose, he can guide his side to a big win (on the way to claiming the title in my opinion..).

United are always likely to score at home, but if they fail to score first and are forced to chase the game, the pace Chelsea have on the break can be deadly, and it would be no surprise to see the Blues grab a good few goals against a weak United defence.

Advice:

2 points: RVP to score anytime @ 11/8 (BetVictor)

2 points: Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (BetVictor)

2 points: Chelsea (draw-no-bet) @ 5/4 (Bet365)

0.5 points: Chelsea to win 3-1 @ 28/1 (Betdaq)

 

 

York Ebor Festival – Day Three Advice

A sensational day two of the Ebor festival, with none of our selections losing! (albeit two non-runners..)

Day three looks arguably the most competitive day of the week, and there are two selections which look worthy of having significant financial interest rested on their hooves.

The first comes in the feature race of the day, the Nunthorpe Stakes. Favourite Shea Shea looks as solid as they come, coming off the back of two fine efforts on these shores.

Mike de Kock’s charge plied his trade to great effect in South Africa and Meydan, before embarking on a campaign in Britain, starting with two fine efforts, a close second at Royal Ascot, and fourth in the July Cup when ridden from too far off the pace.

He is 5 from 7 at five furlongs, and back at his optimum trip he will take all the beating. Frankie Dettori takes over from Cristophe Soumillon in the saddle, and the flashy Italian looks set to reinvigorate the colt back to Group One success and finally deliver Mike de Kock the big race he deserves on these shores.

The 4/1 looks too big to ignore, and it would be surprise to see the colt go off around the 5/2, 11/4 mark come Friday afternoon.

The other selection on the penultimate day of the Ebor festival is another resting on the shoulders of Mr Dettori, with Ebn Arab in the final race on the card.

Charlie Hills’ colt looked set to be embarking on a big career when running away with a maiden on the Knavesmire last year.

He was sent off second favourite for both the Acomb and the Somerville Tattersall stakes, slightly disappointing in both before landing a conditions stakes at Doncaster at the first time of asking this term.

He was outclassed at Doncaster behind a potential superstar Montiridge, so there is no disgrace in that, and although his last run when sent off 50/1 in the Britannia Stakes, was rather flat, he still comes into the race with plenty of scope for improvement.

This race looks set to take a lot less ability to go close, and if he has maintained his 2yo ability, or even improved slightly, he has the opportunity to make a mockery of his mark and 25/1 looks far too big to ignore.

Advice:

2 points win: Shea Shea @ 4/1 (Betfair)

1 point e.w: Ebn Arab @ 25/1 (Betvictor)

 

 

York Ebor Festival – Day Two Advice

Close, but no 1996 Dubai World Cup winner, on the opening day of the Ebor festival, with our selections performing respectably, but falling just short.

Martin Chuzzlewit failed to settle for much of the race, before plugging on best of all at the finish, making up numerous places in the last furlong. He’s one to keep an eye on next time out, with a truly run race.

Coulsty also stayed on well, and showed plenty of guts to take second off top weight in the nursery, and he should be a major player as a there-year-old, when given a break.

Now, for day two of racing at the Knavesmire with just two selections to choose from.

Wentworth looked potential Group class for a large part of his career, and the manner of his victory at Goodwood suggests a step into Group company is going to come sooner rather than later.

Yet, for now he is still making waves in a lower class, and it’s time to take advantage of the 9/2 on offer for Wentworth to land the Class Two, Clipper Logistics Handicap on Thursday afternoon.

A decent weight, ideal trip, ideal ground and a certain Mr Hughes on his back suggests all things are set for a big run. Queensberry Rules looked a class-act before flopping last time out at Ascot, and anything Johnny Murtagh rides on these shores can not be ignored.

However, he may lack the finishing kick that Wentworth showed to devilish effect last time out, and for this reason, it is worth siding with messrs Hannon and Hughes, and get on board the 9/2 before it disappears.

The Yorkshire Oaks looks set to be a cracker this year with top-class fillies from across Britain turning up to compete.

The Fugue looks a worthy favourite back over a mile and a half, and against her own sex she may prove hard to beat.

However, it is worth taking a chance with Lady Cecil’s Wild Coco, who looked better than ever when landing a big prize at Goodwood last month.

Tom Queally has opted for the filly over the likely improver Riposte, and her high cruising speed and staying qualities indicate it may be the correct decision.

She arguably wants further than the mile and a half tomorrow, but she does have winning form over the trip and any pace in the race is sure to be welcomed by the Cecil camp.

She should go very close, and the 11/2 currently on offer looks an each-way steal with the filly sure to stick on to the places at the very least.

Advice:

1 pt win: Wentworth @ 9/2 (Various)

1 pt win: Wild Coco @ 11/2 (Various)

1pt e.w doube: Wentworth/Wild Coco @ 34.75/1 (Racebets)

 

York Ebor Festival – Day One Advice

The opening day of arguably the best flat meeting of the summer (albeit a biased verdict..), and there is plenty of top quality action to get stuck into.

The big talking point of the day is the clash between proven Group One horse Al Kazeem, and the young pretender who’s not certain to stay, Toronado.

Al Kazeem is a class-act, and a worthy favourite on all facts and figures we’ve seen so far, however Toronado could just be that something special, and as Hughes comes there swinging two out, we are set to see just how good the apple of his eye, really is.

It’s a race to strictly enjoy, even without any financial interest, and it’s all set to be a cracker.

However, there are plenty of big prices to get involved with on Wednesday, and none more competitive than the opener, for which Above Standard heads the market at 8/1.

He sneaks into the race near the bottom of the weights, after racking up a successful 5f double on the Knavesmire in June, before a close fourth at Glorious Goodwood.

Drawn 18 of 19, the 5yo seems to have everything in place for a big run, and with Mick Easterby’s charge clearly on an upward curve, the course and distance winner looks set to go off shorter than the current 17/2 on Betfair.

The trainer and jockey have a solid strike-rate at York, and should go very close to getting off the mark at the first chance.

york

Elsewhere on the card, there is an outsider in the penultimate race that has been seemingly overlooked by the bookmakers, despite having solid form at the Yorkshire track.

Martin Chuzzlewit has always been extremely well-regarded by connections, and the 4yo son of Galileo has ran well in handicaps at the venue over the previous two seasons.

He lacks tactical speed which suggests the step up in trip is definitely up his street, and should he manage to curb the seeming regression, he has moer than enough talent to make a serious impact on proceedings.

His last race, he started second favourite behind Montaser, who has since been tried at Group level, and he ran well for much of that contest depsite taking a keen hold early on.

A change of pilot in the shape of William Buick, could well give the horse the boost he needs to regain some of his best form, on which he would surely go close.

The 16/1 available at the minute looks too tempting to resist, and if he manages to settle early on, he should give us a good run for our money.

In the finale, a class two nursery, there is only two horses in single figures which show just how competitive it is on paper.

Ventura Spirit looks a solid favourite given his close third to current Acomb favourite The Grey Gatsby, but we turn to the already proven class act in the race.

Coulsty didn’t really kick on from his explosive debut at Leicester when he hacked up by five lengths, yet he still has the best form in the book at the minute.

He finished down the field behind No Nay Never at Royal Ascot, before finishing second in a conditions stakes at Newmarket, and third behind the highly regarded Bunker in Deauville.

He carries top weight, but with Richard Hughes in the saddle, he is fancied to go very close a cracking each-way price of 10/1.

Advice:

1 point win: Above Standard @ 8/1 (Various)

1 point win: Martin Chuzzlewit @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

1 point win: Coulsty @ 10/1 (William Hill/Ladbrokes)

0.25 e.w patent: Above Standard/Martin Chuzzlewit/Coulsty @ 1682/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

Premier League – Opening Day Advice

Finally, after an excruciating long summer without football, the Premier League returns, and with it, an opportunity to win some money to make Match of the Day even sweeter.

There’s nothing worse than conceding an injury time equaliser, to ruin your acca (apart from Garth Crooks), but on the flip-side, there is nothing sweeter than hearing Jeff screaming “there’s been a goal at the Emirates!”, when waiting on Arsenal for the last leg of a tasty treble.

Swings and roundabouts, and there are plenty of ups and downs to be expected over the coming season, but hopefully we can start with a profit.

Under/Over treble;

I’ve never put up any predictions about over/under 2.5 goals before, but looking at the prices this weekend, there seems to be some brilliant value floating around.

Liverpool kick-off the new season versus Stoke in the early kick-off, and the last two games at Anfield between the two sides have finished 0-0.

Liverpool always seem to start the season slowly, but should have enough firepower to see off a Stoke side that will take a while to adjust to the new playing style of Mark Hughes.

I can’t see Stoke troubling new boy Simon Mignolet too much, and a 2-0 victory for the reds looks a solid prediction. However, you can never be too confident on Liverpool bagging too many goals against the Potters, and the under 2.5 goals price at Evens looks a solid bet to add to the multiple.

Swansea v Manchester United is the late kick-off on the opening day, and we can expect goals galore at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea have had the benefit of being back in competitive action earlier than most, with the Europa League qualifying having already commenced.

They looked solid, with new-boys Wilfried Bony and Jonjo Shelvey linking up well with one of the finds of the season Michu. They will cause a rather worried David Moyes some problems, and with United’s pre-season being rather mixed, it would be no surprise to see Swansea bag a couple.

Burnley v Manchester United - Premier League

However a side with Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney in will always score goals, so the safe option is to side with over 2.5, and just enjoy the game, which looks set to be a cracker. 4/5 is a fair price, and is worthy of going in the multiple.

The final leg of the over/under treble is the West Brom v Southampton game, which looks set to have plenty of action.

The Baggies’ new signing, Nicolas Anelka will be looking to get off the mark straight away, and with new England front-man, Rickie Lambert on the opposite side, there looks to be goals in the offing.

Both are rather attacking sides, and will be a bit slow defensively earlier on in the season. It is worth risking the front-men being able to stick away the chances they are sure to get. 10/11,. tots up the over/under treble to 5.87/1, and adds a bit of interest during the televised games.

Opening Day BTTS & Win double;

Norwich entertain Everton at three o’clock, and the Blues has been in great form pre-season, showing they can match it with the big boys over in America. Kevin Mirallas looks like he is set for a massive season, and he can lead Everton to an opening day victory at Carrow Road.

Roberto Martinez seems to have fazed in his new passing style seamlessly during the season, and has a solid back four to base it off. Coleman and Baines are arguably the best full-back pairing in the league on their day, and both are set to go on to bigger things unless Everton step up and mount a European challenge this year.

fellaini

Norwich have signed well, but still lack defensive depth and a central midfielder to run the show. This is where Everton can take advantage on Saturday, and with Fellaini pulling the strings in the centre, Everton should just have enough to see off the challenge of Chris Hughton’s men.

It’s worth taking advantage of Ladbrokes’ 18/5 about Everton to win, with both teams scoring.

Add this with Manchester United to beat Swansea, with both teams scoring at 11/4 and we have a 16.25/1 double that is extremely enticing.

Any-time scorer treble;

Theo Walcott looked in good nick for England in midweek, getting himself on the score-sheet, and he can replicate this come Saturday, against a rather week Aston Villa defence.

walcott

He is 5/4 to net any-time, and with his pace like to cause the Villa back-four problems all afternoon, he looks good value to start the season with a bang.

Kevin Mirallas can also carry on his pre-season form by getting his name on the score-sheet at the first time of asking. The Belgian has gone from strength-to-strength since arriving in the Premier League, and has excelled under the guidance of Roberto Martinez, slotting in to the fluid formation with great ease.

Employed as a wide-man, Mirallas is keen to link up with the lone striker, and this means the 5/2 about him netting looks a decent prospect.

Tottenham have brought in Roberto Soldado to bolster their attack, and mount a challenge for top-four next season, and he will start his campaign away at Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon.

He has strength, and a sharp finish and although he won’t be used to the physical presence that Palace offer, he had the ability to be able to adapt quickly.

He is set to be penalty taker for Spurs, which could come in handy Sunday, and at 5/4 it’s worth adding him to our any-time trio, which will hopefully result in us having a bit of interest come Sunday.

Advice:

1 point treble (Over/Under 2.5 goals): Liv/Stoke – Under, Swa/MU, WBA/South – Over @ 5.87/1 (William Hill)

1 point double: Everton to beat Norwich & BTTS, Manchester United to beat Swansea & BTTS @ 16.25/1 (Ladbrokes)

1 point treble (any-time scorer): Walcott/Mirallas/Soldado @ 16.72/1 (BetVictor)

US PGA Championship – Preview With Tips

The last major of the golfing season is upon us, and the betting seems based around one man, Tiger Woods, who is aiming to end his five year wait for a fifteenth major.

The American has began to piece together form of late, all culminating with a magnificent victory in the WGC-Bridgestone, when he managed to shoot a 61, equaling his lowest ever round.

He looked comfortable in the Open Championship, until a late semi-collapse left him tied for sixth, and that will have given him the added boost he needed to ensure he sees out his rounds, which has shown at Bridgestone.

He is the greatest golfer in the world, and comes into the event in great form, however is 4/1 really value? Of course, if he bolts up by seven shots like he did last week, it will look tremendous, however this is set to be a lot tougher.

If he manages to escape the mental toughness that seems to be overriding his psyche in majors of late, he will take all the beating, but he can’t be advised at such a short price, and the firms offering money back if Woods wins, may be worth siding with this week.

Fortunately for us, due to the superiority of Tiger in terms of the betting, we can find massive value elsewhere, due to the shortest price outside of the master, being 16/1.

However, we look to side with Henrik Stenson, who looks like massive value at 25/1, given his current form.

He finished second at Firestone last Sunday, and continues to be backed every time he lines up for a major.

stenson

Ranking fifth on the PGA tour for driving accuracy, it is his putting which has often let the Swede down, and if he manages to piece together a bit of form on the greens at Oak Hill, it would be no surprise to see him end his long wait for a first major.

He has form in the USPGA, finishing top-six in successive years, back in 2008 and 2009, and given the drive and determination etched on Stenson’s stern face every time he lines up at the first tee, you can tell how much it would mean to him, to end the season with a major.

He looks set to be the main selection of the week, whilst we look elsewhere for potential springers at bigger prices.

Although he has been in abysmal form of late, Rory McIlroy has the ability to make a mockery of his 35/1 odds.

The reigning champion landed last years prize in tremendous style, and would be a lot shorter had it not been for his well-documented dip in form since signing a mega-money contract with Nike.

His distance control when using a wedge has been dramatically inconsistent, and he will need to show massive improvements in his short game, as-well as driving accuracy.

However his final round and the Open showed signs of improvements, and states he is entering the week with positives.

Although I wouldn’t advise having a massive amount of McIlroy, it is worth chancing your arm at a bigger price that he can find enough improvement with his new clubs, to mount a serious challenge.

Any signs of a big round early on, and his odds will crumble, as the layers know what he is capable of. This offers a great chance to lay your bet off and escape with a profit, before he has the chance to crumble.

Our final selection is one readers of the golfing selection of this blog, won’t be surprised to see, GMac.

He has been put up in every major covered, and we still need to keep our unwavering faith with the Irishman.

At the last two majors I have been incredibly happy to get 25/1 and 28/1, so imagine the delight of having a quick browse of Oddschecker and seeing the 66/1 widely on offer.

He has been fairly uninspiring of late, and enters the week needing to improve on previous efforts. However, he has won three times in 2013, and all have been on the back of poor performances.

With no pressure on him (like Rory), we could see a different man come Thursday morning, and he looks too big to ignore at 66/1.

Advice:

1.5 points e.w: Henrik Stenson @ 25/1 (Various)

0.75 points e.w: Rory McIlroy @ 35/1 (Coral)

0.75 points e.w: Graeme McDowell @ 66/1 (Various) 

Glorious Goodwood – Final Day Preview

Close but no cigar on the penultimate day of Glorious Goodwood for our selections, with two out of the three getting placed in the e.w patent.

However it shows we are in the right area, and I shall bid you farewell with just one selection for Saturday’s very open day of racing.

It comes in the highlight of the day, the Nassau Stakes, for which Sky Lantern is currently trading at 2/1.

sky lantern

The filly lost a very contentious decision last time out, when failing to get the victory many thought she deserved (when initially finishing runner-up to Elusive Kate), in the stewards room.

She came there to win her race, and was carried across the entire straight at Newmarket, which could well have cost her the race. Still, it was a brilliant performance to push a consistent Group competitor, Elusive Kate, all the way.

She had earlier shown just how classy she really was, when confirming her narrow 1000 Guineas form with the re-apposing Just the Judge, when landing the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, in tremendous style.

The ability the classy filly managed to show was sensational, and the trait of managing to switch off and reserve energy as she shown that day will come in handy over this extra two furlongs.

Everything looks in her favour, and the extra distance looks set to suit. No-one rides Goodwood like the maestro Richard Hughes, and the pair look set to round out a spectacular week in style.

It’s not the strongest renewal you are likely to see , and with the second favourite having only won a listed race last time out, you have to question how long the 2/1 about Sky Lantern will last.

Of the rest, Ambivalent is a mare I have followed all year, and she has been putting up big performance, after big performance. She arrives in great form having landed the Group One Pretty Polly last time out, and with that man Murtagh in the saddle anything is possible.

JP has been on top of his game of late, and anything he sits on has to go in the notebook. The penalty she gets for being a 4-y-o could stop her from getting the better of Sky Lantern, but she will be staying on best of all at the end, and if he can reproduce the ride a la Forgotten Voice, it could pay to get involved in a forecast.

Hot Snap can’t be ignored if finding her 2-y-o form, and the extra two fulrongs will help her if her pedigree is anything to go by. She has her ideal ground, and could fill the placings.

Advice:

3 points win: Sky Lantern @ 2/1

0.75 points e.w: Ambivalent @ 18/1

Glorious Goodwood – Day Four Advice

Hopefully the boost of a very profitable day on Thursday, will kick us on for bigger and better things Friday, with a tasty looking card to get our teeth into.

The seven race card opens with a tricky looking affair, with seven horses going to post.

Masterstroke is the current 5/2 favourite, following his strong form for Andre Fabre in France, yet it is the Godolphin ‘second-string’ that particularly takes my eye in this encounter.

Lost in the Moment is currently trading at 6/1 (even bigger on Betfair), and this looks too good to ignore. His third behind yesterdays Goodwood Cup second favourite Caucus (who got within a length of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate), and taking Listed win over I’m Your Man and Harris Tweed (who has since won, on Tuesday at this meeting) looks as if he has been massively overpriced.

lost in the moment

Aiken and Royal Ascot winner Forgotten Voice both warrant massive respect, but the way in which Lost in the Moment picked up after receiving a whip to the face from an opponent’s jockey, and current consistently strong form going back over a year, means he warrants a much shorter price than 6/1.

Therefore this is most definitely the best value bet in the race, and he should go very close to starting our day off in the best possible manner.

In the second race, the 2000 Guineas runner-up Glory Awaits reappears, at a rather enticing price of 6/1.

He ran out of skin to grab second place in a classic (finishing ahead of Sussex Stakes winner Toronado), and then finished a respectable fifth behind the magnificent Dawn Approach at Royal Ascot.

A reappearance of that form, would surely see him go very close, and it would seem the bookmakers are taking these runs as a fluke.

If he was trained by Richard Hannon or Aiden O’Brien, he would be around the 5/2 or less mark, so get stuck into the 6/1 and make these bookmakers pay for underestimating the power of Kevin Ryan and Neil Callan.

Our final selection (potential ‘get-out clause’) comes in the shape of Cape Peron.

His form has been consistent at a high level, with his final outing being at Royal Ascot, when finishing a very fine fifth to Roca Tumu in the ever competitive Britannia Stakes.

He travelled like a dream before failing to find extra in the final furlong, but tomorrow’s tougher surface my find the best of him, as his travelling will come in to effect even more, on better ground.

Dane O’Neill has a 100% strike-rate on the horse, and with him being pulled out last Saturday (so he would be fresh for this), he looks a massive player, and 8/1 looks a brilliant each-way bet.

Both him and Wentworth are potential Group horses in the making, and any more rain would be welcomed.

Windhoek brings in plenty of class to the race, but it’s worth taking a gamble on Cape Peron being on an upward curve, and he rounds off what could be a very successful opening three-race treble at Goodwood.

Advice:

1 point win: Lost in the Moment @ 6/1

1 point win: Glory Awaits @ 6/1

1 point win: Cape Peron @ 8/1

0.5pt e.w patent: Lost in the Moment/Glory Awaits/Cape Peron @ 440/1