Erik The Red Can Answer Cambridgeshire Conundrum

The Cambridgeshire is often one of the most intriguing betting heats to take place on the Rowley Mile, as a large field spans right across the track.

As always, we’re in for a big price favourite, with last year’s winner Third Time Lucky heading the betting at 8/1. This appears to have been his aim for some time, so he should be readied to perfection but at a bigger price, it is Erik The Red that looks worth a second look.

Kevin Ryan is in fair form himself and after Erik The Red rattled up a quickfire hat-trick around this time last year, it could be argued the Cambridgeshire will have been suggested as a long-term goal.

He has hit the frame in four of his six handicap bows this season, including a fine third at York off this mark last time. He was given plenty to do that day and stayed on well, so now with Paul Mulrennan on board, it would be no surprise to see the rider make more use of him.

He’s drawn high, so should get a nice toe into the race and if he can improve, which isn’t out of the realms of possibility for the 4-y-o gelding, then he should go very close at a rather large 25/1. Sky Bet are currently joint-top price and are paying SIX PLACES, so it looks worth a small investment at this stage.

Elsewhere on Saturday’s Newmarket card, Best Of Days can make up for his close runner-up effort at York by getting his head in front in the Royal Lodge Stakes before Lady Aurelia shows her dazzling speed in the Cheveley Park Stakes.

The Middle Park Stakes looks fairly disappointing without the star turn of Caravaggio, yet Mehmas could be the answer against Blue Point. Richard Hannon JR’s colt got the better of the favourite when the pair met at Goodwood before his stamina was slightly stretched when runner-up to the classy Churchill in Ireland.

Back over his favoured six furlongs, Mehmas, who will be retired to stud at the end of his 2-y-o career, can confirm form with the favourite and he certainly looks value at the prices.

Selections:

1pt ew – Erik The Red – Cambridgeshire – 25/1 (Sky Bet – 6 places)

1.5pt win – Mehmas – Middle Park – 5/1 (Various)

Forge Clear At Newmarket

Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting takes centre stage tomorrow and there looks to be plenty of interesting sorts taking to the Rowley Mile.

We begin with a Listed contest at 1.50 and although wide-open, it isn’t the strongest renewal in terms of class. However there are a number of interesting runners, including Wilamina, who looks potentially useful before a disappointing effort last time out. If you’re willing to line through that performance, then she should be bang there at a nice double figure price. However, the nod goes towards Kevin Ryan’s charge, Ashadihan.

The filly burst onto the scene with a blistering turn of foot during a Haydock maiden victory, before running a huge race to finish second in the Albany. Something was clearly amiss as she flopped in the Albany but she bounced back in style, with a smooth success in a Lingfield Group 3 on her first start of the season.

She ran solid enough raves behind Alice Springs and Qemah on her last two starts at Group 1 level and now a return to tomorrow’s level should allow to go mightily close again. At 6/1, she looks a solid proposition.

It would be a surprise to see Journey turned over in the 2.30, as a reproduction of last year’s form puts her clear of rivals and her efforts this season have suggested she’s retained plenty of ability. She won this race by eight lengths last season and should take the beating yet again.

It’s hard to back against Fair Eva in the Rockfel Stakes, as she is sure to relish the step up to 7f for the first time. Her pedigree (daughter of the mighty Frankel) suggests she will enjoy further in time and although she was turned over by the very smart Queen Kindly at York, the winner had conditions perfect and may turn out to be more suited to a sharp six at this stage.

Her odds aren’t fantastic but it could be a performance to put forward her 1000 Guineas credentials. Exmouth has the potential to be extremely useful but the more experience Fair Eva should have enough to keep her at bay in what looks a safe enough forecast.

Nathra is a worthy favourite in the Shadwell Joel Stakes but it may be worth taking a chance on Forge. Sir Michael Stoute’s charge has ran well in defeat behind Nemoralia, Thikriyaat, Ribchester and Zonderland before he managed to get his head in front at Haydock last time out. He has a similar profile to Confront, who won this race for connections back in 2009. At 5/1, he should give the favourite plenty to think about.

For the rest of the card, Alfarris is an interesting and expensive purchase, who should go well for the in form William Haggas yard. Century Dream holds a Group 1 entry and should progress plenty from his nice Ascot sixth on debut. He looks value against a favourite that was rather flat last time out and could be worth a second glance at a nice enough price, with Simon Crisford’s horses in decent order.

The strong-travelling Dal Harraild is sure to have plenty of supporters in the penultimate race but the consistent Furia Cruzada could be one to stay on best from a gentle pace and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, an extremely fine judge of pace, a chance can be taken at 5/1.

The ‘lucky last’ just to happens to be the Silver Cambridgeshire, so those who sample the ‘luck’ will be rewarded at a a healthy price. Dawn Mirage has come in for early support for Messrs Haggas and Moore but Freight Train catches the eye for Mark Johnston and Jamie Spencer.

Johnston’s charges are renowned for being extremely tough and this front-running sort could prove hard to pass if coming on for his run at Pontefract last time out. He had flirted with another big performance as he streaked clear before being collared late on, yet with Spencer now on board, he could of interest now fit from that effort.

Selections:

1pt win: 1:50 – Ashadihan @ 6/1 (Various)

1pt win: 3:40 – Forge @ 5/1 (Various)

1pt ew: 5:55 – Freight Train @ 20/1 (Various)