Glorious Goodwood – Day Four Advice

Hopefully the boost of a very profitable day on Thursday, will kick us on for bigger and better things Friday, with a tasty looking card to get our teeth into.

The seven race card opens with a tricky looking affair, with seven horses going to post.

Masterstroke is the current 5/2 favourite, following his strong form for Andre Fabre in France, yet it is the Godolphin ‘second-string’ that particularly takes my eye in this encounter.

Lost in the Moment is currently trading at 6/1 (even bigger on Betfair), and this looks too good to ignore. His third behind yesterdays Goodwood Cup second favourite Caucus (who got within a length of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate), and taking Listed win over I’m Your Man and Harris Tweed (who has since won, on Tuesday at this meeting) looks as if he has been massively overpriced.

lost in the moment

Aiken and Royal Ascot winner Forgotten Voice both warrant massive respect, but the way in which Lost in the Moment picked up after receiving a whip to the face from an opponent’s jockey, and current consistently strong form going back over a year, means he warrants a much shorter price than 6/1.

Therefore this is most definitely the best value bet in the race, and he should go very close to starting our day off in the best possible manner.

In the second race, the 2000 Guineas runner-up Glory Awaits reappears, at a rather enticing price of 6/1.

He ran out of skin to grab second place in a classic (finishing ahead of Sussex Stakes winner Toronado), and then finished a respectable fifth behind the magnificent Dawn Approach at Royal Ascot.

A reappearance of that form, would surely see him go very close, and it would seem the bookmakers are taking these runs as a fluke.

If he was trained by Richard Hannon or Aiden O’Brien, he would be around the 5/2 or less mark, so get stuck into the 6/1 and make these bookmakers pay for underestimating the power of Kevin Ryan and Neil Callan.

Our final selection (potential ‘get-out clause’) comes in the shape of Cape Peron.

His form has been consistent at a high level, with his final outing being at Royal Ascot, when finishing a very fine fifth to Roca Tumu in the ever competitive Britannia Stakes.

He travelled like a dream before failing to find extra in the final furlong, but tomorrow’s tougher surface my find the best of him, as his travelling will come in to effect even more, on better ground.

Dane O’Neill has a 100% strike-rate on the horse, and with him being pulled out last Saturday (so he would be fresh for this), he looks a massive player, and 8/1 looks a brilliant each-way bet.

Both him and Wentworth are potential Group horses in the making, and any more rain would be welcomed.

Windhoek brings in plenty of class to the race, but it’s worth taking a gamble on Cape Peron being on an upward curve, and he rounds off what could be a very successful opening three-race treble at Goodwood.

Advice:

1 point win: Lost in the Moment @ 6/1

1 point win: Glory Awaits @ 6/1

1 point win: Cape Peron @ 8/1

0.5pt e.w patent: Lost in the Moment/Glory Awaits/Cape Peron @ 440/1

 

Glorious Goodwood – Day One Advice

The ‘most beautiful racecourse in the world’ plays host to one of the summer’s biggest racing festivals, and it looks set to begin with a bang.

There are plenty of high class horses on show, and the festival begins with a tricky looking handicap. There are too many potential good things to delve into that too deeply, so we begin our week with a strong looking selection in the second race.

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes always seem to come alive at this time of year, and they are represented by the highly rated Anticipated in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes.

The son of Whipper lost his unbeaten tag in the Windsor Castle when last seen in Britain, finishing a respectable third behind Extortionist, when sent off 4/1 favourite.

He then went to France, finishing the best of the British raiders, in fifth place behind Vorda in the Prix Robert Papin.

This is rock solid form, and the only reason he isn’t favourite is due to Supplicant finishing a short-head in front him in the Windsor Castle. This is set to be more of a tactical affair, and with Hughes’ likely to stalk Ryan Moore on board Supplicant, his finishing kick will be seen to better effect.

The 4/1 looks more than fair, and he looks an each-way certainty.

Now, in our third race on the card, likely favourite Aljamaheer looks a very good horse who could potentially go on to bigger and better things. However there have been plenty of warnings that the colt may not even turn up, unless conditions go his way.

He needs a bit more juice in the ground, and if he doesn’t get enough (which looks likely), there are plenty of better alternatives in the race.

None more so than Producer, who beat the favourite off level weights at Leicester back in April. He receives four pounds on Tuesday, and with  Hannon always seeming to hit top form at this time of the year, another bold run is expected. He is currently 5/1, and that price will be considerably shorter come race time tomorrow.

He has course and distance form in the book, and gets into the race unpenalised following his Group Three win in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time out. Fencing and Garswood are both respected and should give account of themselves, but Richard Hughes’ mount is taken to land the prize.

BetVictor are running a magnificent offer, that will act as a saver to our selections for the entirety of Glorious Goodwood. They are offering your money back as a free bet, if your horse finishes second to the SP favourite in any race during the festival. This means if our selections are pipped by the favourites, the pain will be eased every so slightly. (http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/2-good)

They have also managed to produce a magnificent guide to Goodwood, which will be on show below my selections. Take a look and it may help sway your selections on top of my advice.

Advice:

2 points win: 2:30 Goodwood: Anticipated @ 4/1 

1 point win: 3:05 Goodwood: Producer @ 5/1

0.5 points e.w double: Anticipated & Producer @ 29/1

Goodwood

 

Royal Ascot – Top Trainer/Jockey

It is usually a procession at Royal Ascot, for Aidan O’Brien to sweep up the top trainer prize, as he dominates the Group fields, usually mob-handed.

However BetVictor are taking no chances this year, going 1/3 about the Irishman landing the prize, which he has done four times in his career so far.

However, there may be cause to look elsewhere, as although O’Brien is coming over with plenty of horses, as he usually does, it is arguably his weakest crop for a good few years.

He is likely to have only one favourite on day one (Stubbs), and that’s in a competitive 16-runner field.

In the past he would have a plethora of talent, with a good few starting at odds-on. Yet this year, he looks set to scrape a few winners, but lacks the bankers of years gone by.

This is why it is sensible to take a chance on the in-form Richard Hannon, who is currently trading at 4/1.

He has plenty of smart juveniles, and is mob-handed in most 2-y-o races, which is where you want to have the most possible chances.

His stable have hit top form, and Richard Hughes is riding out of his skin, which only add to his chances of being top trainer, as Hughes is his retained stable jockey.

The 4/1 is definitely a bit on the large side, and I would definitely suggest it is worth chancing, at a bit of value, as opposed to the 1/3 about O’Brien.

So.. if Hannon is to have a great week, it will pay to desert Joseph O’Brien, current favourite to be top jockey for the week, to also back Hughes at 4/1.

BetVictor claim there has been plenty of support around for Hughes, as they originally opening him up at 6/1, before plenty of support has seen him clipped in to a more than respectable 4/1.

He has top pick of all of Hannon’s horses, and know which are going best of all at home on the gallops. He is very rarely wrong, and as-well as Hannon’s backing, he is also set to pick up a few very exciting spare rides.

He is riding out of his skin at the moment, and has clawed the deficit back to only one, behind Ryan Moore in the flat jockey’s championship.

The 4/1 looks a solid investment, and if Hughesy pips your horse to the line, it will ease the pain, every so slightly.

Another thing that will ease the pain, is our friends at BetVictor are REFUNDING UP TO £25 AS A FREE BET, IF HUGHES MAKES THE FRAME.

This is a real offer, and one that you should all definitely take advantage of.

If Hughes is riding a fancied runner in the race, but you’re keen on another, have a bet with BetVictor and they’ll refund your losses of up to £25, as a free bet if Hughes makes the frame.

Advice:

Richard Hannon to be top trainer @ 4/1 with BetVictor

Richard Hughes to be top jockey @ 4/1 with BetVictor