York Ebor Festival – Day One Advice

The opening day of arguably the best flat meeting of the summer (albeit a biased verdict..), and there is plenty of top quality action to get stuck into.

The big talking point of the day is the clash between proven Group One horse Al Kazeem, and the young pretender who’s not certain to stay, Toronado.

Al Kazeem is a class-act, and a worthy favourite on all facts and figures we’ve seen so far, however Toronado could just be that something special, and as Hughes comes there swinging two out, we are set to see just how good the apple of his eye, really is.

It’s a race to strictly enjoy, even without any financial interest, and it’s all set to be a cracker.

However, there are plenty of big prices to get involved with on Wednesday, and none more competitive than the opener, for which Above Standard heads the market at 8/1.

He sneaks into the race near the bottom of the weights, after racking up a successful 5f double on the Knavesmire in June, before a close fourth at Glorious Goodwood.

Drawn 18 of 19, the 5yo seems to have everything in place for a big run, and with Mick Easterby’s charge clearly on an upward curve, the course and distance winner looks set to go off shorter than the current 17/2 on Betfair.

The trainer and jockey have a solid strike-rate at York, and should go very close to getting off the mark at the first chance.

york

Elsewhere on the card, there is an outsider in the penultimate race that has been seemingly overlooked by the bookmakers, despite having solid form at the Yorkshire track.

Martin Chuzzlewit has always been extremely well-regarded by connections, and the 4yo son of Galileo has ran well in handicaps at the venue over the previous two seasons.

He lacks tactical speed which suggests the step up in trip is definitely up his street, and should he manage to curb the seeming regression, he has moer than enough talent to make a serious impact on proceedings.

His last race, he started second favourite behind Montaser, who has since been tried at Group level, and he ran well for much of that contest depsite taking a keen hold early on.

A change of pilot in the shape of William Buick, could well give the horse the boost he needs to regain some of his best form, on which he would surely go close.

The 16/1 available at the minute looks too tempting to resist, and if he manages to settle early on, he should give us a good run for our money.

In the finale, a class two nursery, there is only two horses in single figures which show just how competitive it is on paper.

Ventura Spirit looks a solid favourite given his close third to current Acomb favourite The Grey Gatsby, but we turn to the already proven class act in the race.

Coulsty didn’t really kick on from his explosive debut at Leicester when he hacked up by five lengths, yet he still has the best form in the book at the minute.

He finished down the field behind No Nay Never at Royal Ascot, before finishing second in a conditions stakes at Newmarket, and third behind the highly regarded Bunker in Deauville.

He carries top weight, but with Richard Hughes in the saddle, he is fancied to go very close a cracking each-way price of 10/1.

Advice:

1 point win: Above Standard @ 8/1 (Various)

1 point win: Martin Chuzzlewit @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

1 point win: Coulsty @ 10/1 (William Hill/Ladbrokes)

0.25 e.w patent: Above Standard/Martin Chuzzlewit/Coulsty @ 1682/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

Glorious Goodwood – Day One Advice

The ‘most beautiful racecourse in the world’ plays host to one of the summer’s biggest racing festivals, and it looks set to begin with a bang.

There are plenty of high class horses on show, and the festival begins with a tricky looking handicap. There are too many potential good things to delve into that too deeply, so we begin our week with a strong looking selection in the second race.

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes always seem to come alive at this time of year, and they are represented by the highly rated Anticipated in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes.

The son of Whipper lost his unbeaten tag in the Windsor Castle when last seen in Britain, finishing a respectable third behind Extortionist, when sent off 4/1 favourite.

He then went to France, finishing the best of the British raiders, in fifth place behind Vorda in the Prix Robert Papin.

This is rock solid form, and the only reason he isn’t favourite is due to Supplicant finishing a short-head in front him in the Windsor Castle. This is set to be more of a tactical affair, and with Hughes’ likely to stalk Ryan Moore on board Supplicant, his finishing kick will be seen to better effect.

The 4/1 looks more than fair, and he looks an each-way certainty.

Now, in our third race on the card, likely favourite Aljamaheer looks a very good horse who could potentially go on to bigger and better things. However there have been plenty of warnings that the colt may not even turn up, unless conditions go his way.

He needs a bit more juice in the ground, and if he doesn’t get enough (which looks likely), there are plenty of better alternatives in the race.

None more so than Producer, who beat the favourite off level weights at Leicester back in April. He receives four pounds on Tuesday, and with  Hannon always seeming to hit top form at this time of the year, another bold run is expected. He is currently 5/1, and that price will be considerably shorter come race time tomorrow.

He has course and distance form in the book, and gets into the race unpenalised following his Group Three win in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time out. Fencing and Garswood are both respected and should give account of themselves, but Richard Hughes’ mount is taken to land the prize.

BetVictor are running a magnificent offer, that will act as a saver to our selections for the entirety of Glorious Goodwood. They are offering your money back as a free bet, if your horse finishes second to the SP favourite in any race during the festival. This means if our selections are pipped by the favourites, the pain will be eased every so slightly. (http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/2-good)

They have also managed to produce a magnificent guide to Goodwood, which will be on show below my selections. Take a look and it may help sway your selections on top of my advice.

Advice:

2 points win: 2:30 Goodwood: Anticipated @ 4/1 

1 point win: 3:05 Goodwood: Producer @ 5/1

0.5 points e.w double: Anticipated & Producer @ 29/1

Goodwood

 

Royal Ascot – Top Trainer/Jockey

It is usually a procession at Royal Ascot, for Aidan O’Brien to sweep up the top trainer prize, as he dominates the Group fields, usually mob-handed.

However BetVictor are taking no chances this year, going 1/3 about the Irishman landing the prize, which he has done four times in his career so far.

However, there may be cause to look elsewhere, as although O’Brien is coming over with plenty of horses, as he usually does, it is arguably his weakest crop for a good few years.

He is likely to have only one favourite on day one (Stubbs), and that’s in a competitive 16-runner field.

In the past he would have a plethora of talent, with a good few starting at odds-on. Yet this year, he looks set to scrape a few winners, but lacks the bankers of years gone by.

This is why it is sensible to take a chance on the in-form Richard Hannon, who is currently trading at 4/1.

He has plenty of smart juveniles, and is mob-handed in most 2-y-o races, which is where you want to have the most possible chances.

His stable have hit top form, and Richard Hughes is riding out of his skin, which only add to his chances of being top trainer, as Hughes is his retained stable jockey.

The 4/1 is definitely a bit on the large side, and I would definitely suggest it is worth chancing, at a bit of value, as opposed to the 1/3 about O’Brien.

So.. if Hannon is to have a great week, it will pay to desert Joseph O’Brien, current favourite to be top jockey for the week, to also back Hughes at 4/1.

BetVictor claim there has been plenty of support around for Hughes, as they originally opening him up at 6/1, before plenty of support has seen him clipped in to a more than respectable 4/1.

He has top pick of all of Hannon’s horses, and know which are going best of all at home on the gallops. He is very rarely wrong, and as-well as Hannon’s backing, he is also set to pick up a few very exciting spare rides.

He is riding out of his skin at the moment, and has clawed the deficit back to only one, behind Ryan Moore in the flat jockey’s championship.

The 4/1 looks a solid investment, and if Hughesy pips your horse to the line, it will ease the pain, every so slightly.

Another thing that will ease the pain, is our friends at BetVictor are REFUNDING UP TO £25 AS A FREE BET, IF HUGHES MAKES THE FRAME.

This is a real offer, and one that you should all definitely take advantage of.

If Hughes is riding a fancied runner in the race, but you’re keen on another, have a bet with BetVictor and they’ll refund your losses of up to £25, as a free bet if Hughes makes the frame.

Advice:

Richard Hannon to be top trainer @ 4/1 with BetVictor

Richard Hughes to be top jockey @ 4/1 with BetVictor