The first all-German clash in the Champions League final looks set to be an absolute thriller.
After being handed ‘the group of death’, being partnered with three other winners of their respective leagues, in the shape of Real Madrid, Manchester City and Ajax.
Many thought Dortmund may struggle to even get out of the group, with Madrid and City being regarded as having slightly better chances.
However the German side showed attacking flair and a beautiful short-passing game that has come to fruition under Jurgen Klopp, and managed to actually top their group.
They come into the game in solid form (ignoring their final game), however they face a massive challenge, as out of the four times the sides have met so far this year, they are yet to win, with Munich winning twice, and the spoils being shared on the other two occasions.
They will be without talisman Mario Gotze, who will be leaving for their opponents over the summer, due to a hamstring injury, and this means Klopp faces a selection headache as a number of players battle for the remaining spot.
Meanwhile, Bayern come into the game in simply scintillating form, having lost only once in the league all season, and ending the season with a goal difference of +80.
They handed out a 7-0 aggregate thrashing to Barcelona in the semi-final and enter the final as extremely worthy favourites.
They will be aiming to eradicate the memories of the past, including the two final losses in recent years, first when losing 2-0 to Inter Milan on in 2010, and more recently, last year, when going down on penalties to a determined Chelsea side.
Arjen Robben felt the pain more than most after he missed from twelve yards in last year’s final, and he will be out to make up for his previous mishaps.
The Dutchman has been in great form all year, and has been key to his sides perhaps over-achievement so far.
He looks set to get on the score-sheet, and the 11/5 on offer with BetVictor does look incredible value. He has proved impossible to mark with his explosive turn of pace, and direct running, and the sizable Wembley pitch will play to his strengths.
It won’t be a completely one-sided affair, as Dortmund are always dangerous on the counter-attack, and have been extremely fearless under their leader. However I think they will definitely struggle and the penultimate game of Jupp Heynckes’ reign as Munich coach looks set to be a winning one.
His side have incredible strength in depth, and Javi Martinez’ job now looks slightly easier with Gotze missing out. Martinez will be able to control the game, and exploit the gaps that are likely to occur in the Dortmund midfield, as Ribery/Robben consistently cut-in from wide positions, causing Bender/Gundogan to sit deeper and deeper.
If this was a regular league game being played at a neutral venue, I would expect a much shorter price than the 3/4 on offer. I’m not a fan of advising odds-on selections, but I think Munich should have too much firepower for their German counterparts, and they will be able to make up for the losses of years gone by.
However, with the Champions League’s second highest scorer on the opposition, in the shape of Robert Lewandowski, it is set to be a both teams to score banker.
Yet, at 13/20 there seems very little value. So take into account that six of the ten goals Bayern have conceded in the competition this season have been scored in the final 15 minutes of their matches, and understand that the most likely scorer for Dortmund is definitely Lewandowksi, then you will find a rather tasty value bet.
The Polish talisman is 13/2 to net the last goal in the 90 minutes on Saturday evening, and this looks a tad large. He’s netted ten times in this year’s competition, including a fantastic four against Real Madrid in the semi-final. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has netted more (12), and the target-man knows he is key if his side are to get anything out of the game.
He bagged his first goal in over a month of domestic football in the 2-1 defeat at Hoffenheim last week, which will give him a confidence boost and the stand out 13/2 with BetVictor looks too big to ignore.
Advice (all with BetVictor):
4 points: Bayern Munich to win @ 3/4
1 point: Robben to score any-time @ 11/5.
1 point: Lewandowski to score last @ 13/2